Thinking Outside the Box

As August stumbles upon us, I've began the process of preparing for my fantasy football draft.  I've read various ESPN articles, glanced at some ranking, and started planning out a strategy for my upcoming drafts.  I like to think outside the box for my drafts mostly because it is fun, but as I’ve learned in poker, if you have a similar strategy as everyone else then you leave your results to luck.  For instance, a few years ago I ignored starting pitchers in my fantasy baseball draft, focused on hitting early and finished with closers.  I easily won my league that season (which prompted an immediate rule change).  Prior to today, when I thought of an out of the box idea, I just tried it in a draft and hoped it worked. When my good friend Jason asked me to write an article for his blog I thought it would be a fun opportunity to actually study a new strategy which I will share with you today.  Drum roll please… Is streaming quarterbacks a viable option for fantasy football?      

Let us start with defining streaming.  Streaming is picking up a free agent player based on their opponent for that game and then dropping them the next day.  This strategy is often used in fantasy baseball with pitchers.  If a free agent pitcher is set to start against the worst hitting team in the league, it is a great option to add them to your roster.  Could we use this same strategy for quarterbacks this year?  We would focus our draft on selecting running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WR).  Once the season begins we pick a new free agent quarterback each week depending on the team they are playing.  I will explore this technique by examining how the strategy would have worked last season.

I am going to assume a 12 person fantasy football league with standard scoring.  The top 11 quarterbacks based on ESPNs preseason rankings are unavailable for me to choose from and of the remaining QBs (free agents) I will strictly pick the quarterback who is playing against the team that allows the most passing yards per game.  For week 1 I will use the Eagles as the opposing defense since they finished 2013 with the most passing yards allowed per game.  For the remaining weeks I will use the teams that finished last in the same category for 2014. 

Top 11 Quarterbacks based on ESPN 2014 preseason rankings:

1. Peyton Manning

2. Drew Brees

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Matt Ryan

5. Andrew Luck

6. Matthew Stafford

7. Tom Brady

8. Nick Foles

9. Cam Newton

10. Jay Cutler

11. Tony Romo

2014 Passing yards allowed per game:

32. Atlanta

31. Philadelphia

30. Chicago

Week	Defense	QB	Points
1	Philadelphia	Henne	16
2	Atlanta	Dalton	14
3	Atlanta	Glennon	9
4	Atlanta	Bridgewater	22
5	Atlanta	E. Manning	16
6	Philadelphia	E. Manning	6
7	Atlanta	Flacco	14
8	Philadelphia	Palmer	21
9	Philadelphia	Fitzpatrick	18
10	Atlanta	McCown	19
11	Chicago	Bridgewater	8
12	Atlanta	Hoyer	7
13	Atlanta	Stanton	11
14	Philadelphia	Wilson	28
15	Atlanta	Roethlisberger	14
16	Philadelphia	Griffin	7
17	Philadelphia	E. Manning	19
			249

Conclusion:

249 points ranks 13th among fantasy quarterbacks last year.  That isn’t bad considering we did not select a top 11 quarterback during the draft.  Let’s look at how many points the top 11 quarterbacks scored last year. 

1. Peyton Manning- 307

2. Drew Brees- 290

3. Aaron Rodgers- 342

4. Matt Ryan- 268

5. Andrew Luck- 336

6. Matthew Stafford- 237

7. Tom Brady- 267

8. Nick Foles- 113*

9. Cam Newton- 237

10. Jay Cutler- 244

11. Tony Romo- 258

*missed extended time

Of 12 quarterbacks (including our model QB) we finished 8/12.  However, that is not as important as the amount of points per game.  Manning, Rodgers, and Luck put up sensational numbers and were truly in a league of their own.  It would be hard to argue against taking one of those three at the beginning of a draft.  However, the 4th highest scorer was Drew Brees.  His 290 points is 41 more points than our model which if you break that down by game is 3.5ppg higher. Drew Brees’ average draft position last year was around 20, making him a second round pick.  With our model we probably would have selected Chad Henne with a 13th round pick at the earliest.  Sticking with our strategy of loading up on RBs and WRs we can compare 2^nd and 13^th round picks for both positions.  Marshawn Lynch and Demarco Murray were popular second round picks and scored 253 points and 282 points respectively.  A 13^th round pick could have landed you Tre Mason (111) and Knile Davis (95).  On average there is about a 10 ppg difference.  Wide Receivers show a similar result in that there is a big difference between the rounds.  Julio Jones (183), Brandon Marshall (113), and Jordy Nelson (221) compared to Jarrett Boykin (1) and Marvin Jones (0).   Obviously there are going to be outliers as no one would have predicted such poor seasons from Boykin and Jones, but as a whole I believe the differences at these positions are going to be greater than the QB model.

            As with most studies there are plenty of limitations.  Studying one NFL season is not nearly enough data to conclude that streaming quarterbacks is the best drafting option.  Additionally, I did not check week by week who the worst defense in the league was as this stat surely changed throughout the

season.  I also did not have the ability to check when the average fantasy league began to scoop up players. For instance, I doubt Russell Wilson would have been available late in the season.

To conclude, after conducting this short study I am more confident in trying this strategy in one of my bigger buy-in fantasy leagues.  I was very strict with the criteria of picking quarterbacks based on their opponent when in reality this does not have to be the case. I also think there are plenty of other factors that could go into play when steaming a quarterback besides the opponents passing yards allowed per game.  For instance in December I may not pick a QB who is playing outdoors. There is also another possibility you could find a 2014 version of Russell Wilson as you are not going to be "married" to any one QB.  Good luck with your draft this season and finding ways to separate yourself from your competitors! 

The Dog Days of Fantasy Baseball Summer

Well gang, it's officially here.  The Dog Days of Fantasy Baseball Summer.  It hits every year where your team just hits a rut no matter what you try to do.  You drop a player who is in an 0-40 slump and pick up someone hitting .500 the last 10 games.  As soon as you make the move, the player you dropped hits two home runs and the guy you pick up adopts your former player's slump.  It will invariably happen and there's not much you can do about it except pick up and wait for a new day.

I know there isn't a lot of time left with playoff seeding TBD, but here are my tips to you to help prevent the dog days from affecting your team too much:

1. Guys with proven pasts will snap out of it:  Don't jump the gun too quickly on players going through major slumps.  In the last 4 games, Ellsbury has gone 0-22 with an 0-7 night last night against the Indians.  He's killing my OBP and not getting any stolen bases or anything for that matter.  The fact is, Ellsbury is only 31 years old so this is nothing to be alarmed about.  It's only a terrible slump, but he will snap out of it.  People are dropping him in leagues but I don't recommend doing the same.

2. Get as much value per player as possible:  I recently dropped Billy Hamilton in my league.  I couldn't justify only putting him in my lineup solely so he could steal a base here and there.  When he wasn't stealing bases, he wasn't doing anything at all.  The dude has a .267 OBP and is ranked 87th in the league in runs scored.  Meaning when he does get on base, and does steal, he's not even making it around the bases to score!  If you need some OF speed and someone who will fill up the boxscore better than Billy, choose Dexter Fowler.  He has a .333 OBP, 71 runs scored, and the inverse amount of stolen bases.  He is a more productive player than Hamilton and will help get you more categories. (owned in 52% of Yahoo leagues).



3. Keep an eye on guys coming back from injury:  After having not played since the first few weeks of the season, David Wright is just about ready to return.  Guys like Wright and Joe Panik who may have been dropped to clear room for another healthy player have been flying low in free agency.  If you have the space, pick up one of these guys, or others like them who are in the playoff hunt.  Wright will have an immediate impact on teams once he returns as the Mets are right smack in the middle of the playoff hunt.  The Mets and your team will certainly benefit from Wright's return to the lineup.



Good luck with your teams as they fight for a playoff spot.  I know it's tough when your team is in a rut, but you gotta stick with your gut and you'll be king, like Tut.  I wasn't planning on rhyming all of that at first but it just kind of happened.  I'm sorry, it's Wednesday, things like that happen.

Mets Monday

The Mets are winning baseball games.  I repeat, the Mets are winning baseball games.  I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the Mets since my mom grew up a huge fan of theirs, but I didn't grow up in NY so I was subjected to the Pirates.  My mom is now a Pirate's fan as well, she's been through years and years of heartache but now, both teams are finally good.  There's a potential Wild Card match up in our midst, I think that might be a tough one for her, but she's too invested with the Pirates to give up now.

Anyways, there was a point in time where David Wright was the only Mets' player worth owning in fantasy leagues.  Now as I take a look at the top performers, it seems like everyone is donning the blue and orange unis.  Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob DeGrom are all of course no brainers across the board.  The only one who I can see maybe not being owned would be Syndergaard, but after his performance on National TV last night, he's being snatched up quicker than VCRs on Black Friday in 1992.

As the Mets continue to make their playoff push, here are a few other Amazin's you need to have on your team for your fantasy playoff run:

Lucas Duda (1b/OF):  Owners of Duda were getting a little frustrated with his lack of production earlier in the season.  But to say he's come around is an understatement.  The dude is flat out RAKING.  Here's the stat of the day that is absolutely crazy: 1st player in Mets' history to hit 9 home runs in 8 games.  NINE HOME RUNS in EIGHT GAMES.  Sorry, I got a little bit excited just because I love crazy feats of greatness on the diamond.  The man had 30 home runs last year, and these days being able to hit 30 home runs isn't anything to slight.  He deserves to be owned in 100% of leagues, but right now he's only owned in 74%.  Get on it!

Curtis Granderson (OF): Granderson certainly isn't the man he once was when he blasted 40+ home-runs in back to back seasons in the Bronx.  These days, he's batting lead off and enjoying a nice surge in power.  He's got 17 home-runs so far this year, and looks like the Grandy of old.  His OBP is up 20 points from last season so he's getting on base, scoring runs, and has 9 stolen bases to boot as well.  Not bad. He's not going to get you the RBIs most power hitters will provide because of his spot in the lineup, but he is contributing to other much needed categories.  Owned in only 57% of leagues, I'd scoop him up as well.

Travis d'Arnaud (C): He started off the season so well, and I picked him up early on as my starting catcher, Evan Gattis, was having his major struggles.  Unfortunately, his bones have been glass this year and has been on the DL already twice this season.  However, he's now back and will certainly join in on the high octane offense fun.  The former supplemental first rounder, was hitting over .300 before he went to the DL and had 4 home runs at the beginning of the season.  Had he remained healthy, I would have predicted around 18-22 home runs, and for a position that doesn't have a lot of depth, that would have been good enough for me.  As the wear and tear begins to take a toll on other catchers around the league, d'Arnaud should be healthy for the long haul and is worth a spot on your roster.  Owned in 33% of leagues, d'Arnaud will provide much needed offense to the catcher position.

The Mets should be able to keep up the hot streak so as this continues, look for their players to do the same.  I leave with you a ballad of the old time Miracles.

Help Wanted: Closers

2015 is certainly not disappointing by the amount of players on the move.  Prominent closers have been moved to locations where closers already were holding down the job just fine.  Below I'll highlight the relievers who have left their team for others and let you know who you need to pick up for what category on what team.

Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) traded to Washington Nationals:

Every year I hope for Papelbon to fail and eventually lose his job to some young gun out of the bullpen so we'll never have to hear from him again.  However as usual, the guy gets what he wants.  He was sent over to Washington where Drew Storen was having a killer season as the Nats' closer.  Check out this quote from Storen, do you think he's happy?

"All I'm going to say is, I'm aware of the move and I've talked to Mike about it. I've talked to my agent about it," Storen said. "We've had some ongoing discussions. Until those have progressed, I'm just going to leave it at that. No comment for now. But as the situation goes, I'll keep you guys posted."

I don't blame him.  However, I don't get paid for my opinion who deserves the job.  Matter of fact, I don't get paid at all.  But for all intents and purposes, Papelbon will be the closer of the Nationals for the remainder of the year.  On days where Papelbon is unavailable, Storen will definitely be the guy so I wouldn't drop him just yet.  If you're into setup guys with low ERA and WHIP, hang onto Storen.  If you're just looking for saves, Storen can be dropped and you can replace him with Ken Giles (PHI). 

Giles has been a silent assassin for the Phillies for a couple seasons now.  Racking up 64 strikeouts in 45 innings last year and 54 Ks in 44 innings this year.  The guy has been patiently waiting for his opportunity to close ballgames and he'll finally get it (if the Phillies can provide run support).  Sub 1.90 ERA for the last two seasons, I fully expect him to be as dominant as he was as a setup guy. 
 

Jim Johnson (ATL) traded to LA Dodgers:

Man I thought this guy's career was over after he imploded with the Orioles and the A's. However, he's had a nice bounce back year and recorded 9 saves in the absence of Jason Grilli.  He's not recording the strikeouts a closer should be making, but he does have a low ERA so he's keeping runs off the board.  He should be a nice addition to help bolster the Dodger's bullpen.

So where does this leave off with Atlanta's closer situation?  Let's take a look at their closers for the 2015 season so far:

1. Craig Kimbrel- fully intended on being the dominant closer he has been but was shipped to San Diego the day before the season started.
2. Jason Grilli- Looked strong until he ruptured his Achilles. Poor guy. 
3. Jim Johnson- see above.

The Braves' 4th closer this season is, drum roll please....Arodys Vizcaino.  Viz has only pitched 9 innings so far since returning from a PED suspension but he has looked strong in that time.  Only surrendering one run and recording 8 strikes outs, he's been a solid option for Freddi Gonzalez and the Braves.  Same thing as the Phillies, the Braves are not providing the necessary run support but if you need a save from time to time, pick up Vizcaino ASAP.

  

Troy Tulowitzki Finally Traded

Well, it finally happened.  All season Tulo's name was floating around the wire and I finally got the update after not having been able to sleep last night.  I must have known something was amiss in the baseball world.  It's kind of like when you're a parent and you just get that 6th sense telling you he or she is up to something, that's what I had last night.  I got an alert just past 1 AM saying Troy had been traded.  We all knew this was going to happen, but I honestly could not have predicted him going to Toronto, and for Jose Reyes nonetheless.  Regardless, this sets up a very interesting fantasy bump for Tulo.

Yes Troy was playing in the best place to hit for power, Coors Field, but now Troy has an actual supporting cast besides Cargo.  The workload will not be placed on him and the Jays will likely look for power from Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.  Troy has the opportunity to get on base a bunch and score a plethora of runs for the high octane offense.   Look for him to bat 2nd behind Devon Travis and immediately ahead of Josh Donaldson.   This isn't to say this will hurt his power potential as Troy obviously has the talent to hit home runs as much as he wants, but the pressure won't be on him as it was in Colorado.  All he has to do is get on base and let the big bats bring him home.

The Blue Jays have done this before when they went out and acquired Jose Reyes, but Tulo, if he stays healthy will add a whole lot more power and offense than Reyes was able to during his tenure in Toronto.  Once Tulo gets over the shock of being dealt (picture below) the Jays will be a scary, scary team.

Manic Monday

At this point in the season, teams are starting to realize who's out and who's still in the hunt for a championship. Thankfully, yours truly is tied for first place and looking to add some key pieces to aid their hopes for greatness. 

At the end of this last week, I found myself battling it out with my opponent for the less "sexy" stats. They should have had this battle on Pay Per View. We were neck and neck for WHIP and OBP. I started to realize if I wanted to win this year, I need to upgrade on these stats and make sure I'm set for the rest of the year.

My advice for those who are buyers this time of year:  yes you're going to want to get that big bat your lineup is missing. What's that going to cost you though? A first round pick in next year's draft?  My experience is, it's not worth it.  Find those guys who are going to get you the most bang for your buck.  Maybe there's that middle reliever like Wade Davis who will help your ERA each week. Or maybe it's Gerardo Parra who will get you those few points in OBP you missed out on last week.  Don't go out and buy high on Jose Bautista or Albert Pujols, they're going to cost you far too much for what you need. You can find the "sexy" stats in free agency, but the most important stats can be acquired through strategic deals. 

Happy hunting!

Friday Fantasy Implications

Growing up, the MLB Trade Deadline used to be my least favorite time of the year.  This is the time where I saw all my favorite Pirates leave for prospects who would invariably never pan out.  Bye Jason Bay, thanks for being the only reliable player on our team.  Oh and who do we get in return?  The worse Laroche brother and three terrible relievers.  But those days are gone for Pittsburgh!  We are finally buyers!  We've already acquired Aramis Ramirez who we gave away 12 years ago for Bobby Hill.  Bobby Hill is probably a Phys Ed teacher (nothing against our educators) while Aramis is still going strong, I love this deal.

As the trade deadline nears, I'm going to highlight the implications given with new additions to teams and departures of other players.

Aramis Ramirez (3B) to Pirates for Yhonathan Barrios (P):

Given all the injuries the left side of the infield has faced this season, this trade was a no brainer.  Aramis Ramirez will fill an immediate hole at third base which will shift Jung Ho Kang to short stop until Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer are ready to return.  Given their injuries, it won't be for awhile.  This move will bolster the Pirates batting order and give a chance for Ramirez to pick up some more RBIs batting behind Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker.  I'd start plugging Ramirez into lineups and see an increase in Home Runs as well with that short porch in left field.

Your Wednesday Free Agency NEEDS

I know, it's the middle of the week and you're getting antsy with under-performers on your team.  I always tell myself, sometimes the best moves you can make are the ones you don't make.  However, there are other times when enough is enough and you need some fresh faces from free agency  Here are some options at each position who will give you some pop at each position:

C- Kyle Schwarber (STILL only 60% owned)
1B- Mitch "Give Me" Moreland (54%)
2B- Joe "It's Not Time To" Panik (65%--and he's an All-Star)
SS- Yunel "Pablo" Escobar (48%)
3B- Jung Ho Kang (17%-- Finally a starter, MUST be owned)
OF- Alex Rios (45%-- Looking to make some noise in the second half)
SP- Mike "Someone Fix The" Leake (35%--Probably going to be traded to a contender)

3 Hot, 3 Not- 7/21/15

The first week back from the All Star break has shown us the true identities of some, and also created some potential stars as well.  The list below will show you 3 guys you need to pick up, and 3 you should probably cut ties with.  All nicknames are TM'ed by me...but not really.

3 Hot:

Taylor "YMCA" Jungmann SP, MIL- Must have been staying at the YMCA because he certainly is having fun out there for the Brewers (boo).  In his past 3 starts he's gone 8, 9, and 7 innings respectively surrendering only 1 ER in each start.  While I don't see this lasting forever, I'd snatch him up now as he has a pretty favorable match up with Arizona this weekend.  Owned in only 24% of Yahoo leagues.

Kyle "Broflovski" Schwarber C/OF, CHI- Here's a guy who has had plenty of hype this season after posting awesome numbers in the minors (.333/.429/.613).  He had a brief appearance earlier this season but now looks like he's here to stay for a little while longer.  After his call up on Friday, he's gone 4 for 10 with 2 runs scored.  Joe Maddon has hinted that Schwarber will catch 3 games in a row against the Reds so make sure to plug him into your lineups now.  Owned in 54% of Yahoo leagues.



Jose "Enrique" Iglesias 3B/SS, DET- There's something about Jose that I just can't keep him off my watch list.  He consistently hits for contact and gets on base and also gives you eligibility at the MI and CI as well.  Not a lot of power but with 10 stolen bases this season, he'll get in scoring position to put some runs on the board for Detroit.  With a slash of (.314/.366/.384) he's definitely getting the job done for a lackluster Tiger's team.  Owned in 29% of Yahoo leagues.

3 Not:

Justin "At Least I Have Kate Upton" Verlander SP, DET- Man I used to love watching this guy pitch.  And by used to, I'm talking two seasons ago.  With a blistering fastball and some awesome off speed junk to mix, he was unstoppable.  This season, his velocity has dropped considerably and I just don't think he has it like he used to (ie Tim Lincecum).  In his past 5 starts he's had 2 decent and 3 terrible outings.  Even if he does get it together, the Tigers are talking about unloading Yoenis Cespedes and Miguel Cabrera won't be back until mid-August, so the run support won't be there.  It's time to part ways with the 6'5 righty.

Chris "This Is The" Carter 1B/OF, HOU- I always knew Chris Carter couldn't hit for average but what is going on here?! He hasn't had a hit since July 3rd!! Usually when these stretches happen at least he'll put one over the wall, but he's done absolutely nothing.  It's a good thing the Astros have so many other power options or else they'd be in trouble.  I wouldn't drop him quite yet, but I'd definitely monitor the situation and put him on your bench in the time being.

Taijuan "Sky" Walker SP, SEA- Walker was supposed to be the closest thing to Felix Hernandez and the Mariners were elated about it.  He's still very young so there's time, but he hasn't been impressing as of late.  His past two outings have been abysmal and he's let up 5 and 7 ERs during those games.  He has a start tonight against Detroit and for me, he's on a short leash.  If he throws the ball well tonight and gets at least 5 strikeouts, I'll keep him on the team for now.  If he implodes again, I'm parting ways with the young righty from Shreveport.



I'm not sure why I just gave a shout out to Shreveport there, but I'm sticking to it!  Good luck in your games tonight and be sure to tune in for more updates this week.

All Star Break Hangover

Welcome to the first post from Dream Team Fantasy.  I don't know about you but I'm ready for the second half of the season to begin.  The All-Star Game was definitely exciting, and I kept checking my team to see if I was getting credit for my guys' performances.  Well, the wait is just about over as the second half of the season begins tomorrow...FINALLY!  Make sure to get those lineups set for Friday, and stay tuned for tips and help for the weekend series.  In the meantime, enjoy some highlights from the All Star Game.