Thinking Outside the Box

As August stumbles upon us, I've began the process of preparing for my fantasy football draft.  I've read various ESPN articles, glanced at some ranking, and started planning out a strategy for my upcoming drafts.  I like to think outside the box for my drafts mostly because it is fun, but as I’ve learned in poker, if you have a similar strategy as everyone else then you leave your results to luck.  For instance, a few years ago I ignored starting pitchers in my fantasy baseball draft, focused on hitting early and finished with closers.  I easily won my league that season (which prompted an immediate rule change).  Prior to today, when I thought of an out of the box idea, I just tried it in a draft and hoped it worked. When my good friend Jason asked me to write an article for his blog I thought it would be a fun opportunity to actually study a new strategy which I will share with you today.  Drum roll please… Is streaming quarterbacks a viable option for fantasy football?      

Let us start with defining streaming.  Streaming is picking up a free agent player based on their opponent for that game and then dropping them the next day.  This strategy is often used in fantasy baseball with pitchers.  If a free agent pitcher is set to start against the worst hitting team in the league, it is a great option to add them to your roster.  Could we use this same strategy for quarterbacks this year?  We would focus our draft on selecting running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WR).  Once the season begins we pick a new free agent quarterback each week depending on the team they are playing.  I will explore this technique by examining how the strategy would have worked last season.

I am going to assume a 12 person fantasy football league with standard scoring.  The top 11 quarterbacks based on ESPNs preseason rankings are unavailable for me to choose from and of the remaining QBs (free agents) I will strictly pick the quarterback who is playing against the team that allows the most passing yards per game.  For week 1 I will use the Eagles as the opposing defense since they finished 2013 with the most passing yards allowed per game.  For the remaining weeks I will use the teams that finished last in the same category for 2014. 

Top 11 Quarterbacks based on ESPN 2014 preseason rankings:

1. Peyton Manning

2. Drew Brees

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Matt Ryan

5. Andrew Luck

6. Matthew Stafford

7. Tom Brady

8. Nick Foles

9. Cam Newton

10. Jay Cutler

11. Tony Romo

2014 Passing yards allowed per game:

32. Atlanta

31. Philadelphia

30. Chicago

Week	Defense	QB	Points
1	Philadelphia	Henne	16
2	Atlanta	Dalton	14
3	Atlanta	Glennon	9
4	Atlanta	Bridgewater	22
5	Atlanta	E. Manning	16
6	Philadelphia	E. Manning	6
7	Atlanta	Flacco	14
8	Philadelphia	Palmer	21
9	Philadelphia	Fitzpatrick	18
10	Atlanta	McCown	19
11	Chicago	Bridgewater	8
12	Atlanta	Hoyer	7
13	Atlanta	Stanton	11
14	Philadelphia	Wilson	28
15	Atlanta	Roethlisberger	14
16	Philadelphia	Griffin	7
17	Philadelphia	E. Manning	19
			249

Conclusion:

249 points ranks 13th among fantasy quarterbacks last year.  That isn’t bad considering we did not select a top 11 quarterback during the draft.  Let’s look at how many points the top 11 quarterbacks scored last year. 

1. Peyton Manning- 307

2. Drew Brees- 290

3. Aaron Rodgers- 342

4. Matt Ryan- 268

5. Andrew Luck- 336

6. Matthew Stafford- 237

7. Tom Brady- 267

8. Nick Foles- 113*

9. Cam Newton- 237

10. Jay Cutler- 244

11. Tony Romo- 258

*missed extended time

Of 12 quarterbacks (including our model QB) we finished 8/12.  However, that is not as important as the amount of points per game.  Manning, Rodgers, and Luck put up sensational numbers and were truly in a league of their own.  It would be hard to argue against taking one of those three at the beginning of a draft.  However, the 4th highest scorer was Drew Brees.  His 290 points is 41 more points than our model which if you break that down by game is 3.5ppg higher. Drew Brees’ average draft position last year was around 20, making him a second round pick.  With our model we probably would have selected Chad Henne with a 13th round pick at the earliest.  Sticking with our strategy of loading up on RBs and WRs we can compare 2^nd and 13^th round picks for both positions.  Marshawn Lynch and Demarco Murray were popular second round picks and scored 253 points and 282 points respectively.  A 13^th round pick could have landed you Tre Mason (111) and Knile Davis (95).  On average there is about a 10 ppg difference.  Wide Receivers show a similar result in that there is a big difference between the rounds.  Julio Jones (183), Brandon Marshall (113), and Jordy Nelson (221) compared to Jarrett Boykin (1) and Marvin Jones (0).   Obviously there are going to be outliers as no one would have predicted such poor seasons from Boykin and Jones, but as a whole I believe the differences at these positions are going to be greater than the QB model.

            As with most studies there are plenty of limitations.  Studying one NFL season is not nearly enough data to conclude that streaming quarterbacks is the best drafting option.  Additionally, I did not check week by week who the worst defense in the league was as this stat surely changed throughout the

season.  I also did not have the ability to check when the average fantasy league began to scoop up players. For instance, I doubt Russell Wilson would have been available late in the season.

To conclude, after conducting this short study I am more confident in trying this strategy in one of my bigger buy-in fantasy leagues.  I was very strict with the criteria of picking quarterbacks based on their opponent when in reality this does not have to be the case. I also think there are plenty of other factors that could go into play when steaming a quarterback besides the opponents passing yards allowed per game.  For instance in December I may not pick a QB who is playing outdoors. There is also another possibility you could find a 2014 version of Russell Wilson as you are not going to be "married" to any one QB.  Good luck with your draft this season and finding ways to separate yourself from your competitors! 

The Dog Days of Fantasy Baseball Summer

Well gang, it's officially here.  The Dog Days of Fantasy Baseball Summer.  It hits every year where your team just hits a rut no matter what you try to do.  You drop a player who is in an 0-40 slump and pick up someone hitting .500 the last 10 games.  As soon as you make the move, the player you dropped hits two home runs and the guy you pick up adopts your former player's slump.  It will invariably happen and there's not much you can do about it except pick up and wait for a new day.

I know there isn't a lot of time left with playoff seeding TBD, but here are my tips to you to help prevent the dog days from affecting your team too much:

1. Guys with proven pasts will snap out of it:  Don't jump the gun too quickly on players going through major slumps.  In the last 4 games, Ellsbury has gone 0-22 with an 0-7 night last night against the Indians.  He's killing my OBP and not getting any stolen bases or anything for that matter.  The fact is, Ellsbury is only 31 years old so this is nothing to be alarmed about.  It's only a terrible slump, but he will snap out of it.  People are dropping him in leagues but I don't recommend doing the same.

2. Get as much value per player as possible:  I recently dropped Billy Hamilton in my league.  I couldn't justify only putting him in my lineup solely so he could steal a base here and there.  When he wasn't stealing bases, he wasn't doing anything at all.  The dude has a .267 OBP and is ranked 87th in the league in runs scored.  Meaning when he does get on base, and does steal, he's not even making it around the bases to score!  If you need some OF speed and someone who will fill up the boxscore better than Billy, choose Dexter Fowler.  He has a .333 OBP, 71 runs scored, and the inverse amount of stolen bases.  He is a more productive player than Hamilton and will help get you more categories. (owned in 52% of Yahoo leagues).



3. Keep an eye on guys coming back from injury:  After having not played since the first few weeks of the season, David Wright is just about ready to return.  Guys like Wright and Joe Panik who may have been dropped to clear room for another healthy player have been flying low in free agency.  If you have the space, pick up one of these guys, or others like them who are in the playoff hunt.  Wright will have an immediate impact on teams once he returns as the Mets are right smack in the middle of the playoff hunt.  The Mets and your team will certainly benefit from Wright's return to the lineup.



Good luck with your teams as they fight for a playoff spot.  I know it's tough when your team is in a rut, but you gotta stick with your gut and you'll be king, like Tut.  I wasn't planning on rhyming all of that at first but it just kind of happened.  I'm sorry, it's Wednesday, things like that happen.

Mets Monday

The Mets are winning baseball games.  I repeat, the Mets are winning baseball games.  I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the Mets since my mom grew up a huge fan of theirs, but I didn't grow up in NY so I was subjected to the Pirates.  My mom is now a Pirate's fan as well, she's been through years and years of heartache but now, both teams are finally good.  There's a potential Wild Card match up in our midst, I think that might be a tough one for her, but she's too invested with the Pirates to give up now.

Anyways, there was a point in time where David Wright was the only Mets' player worth owning in fantasy leagues.  Now as I take a look at the top performers, it seems like everyone is donning the blue and orange unis.  Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob DeGrom are all of course no brainers across the board.  The only one who I can see maybe not being owned would be Syndergaard, but after his performance on National TV last night, he's being snatched up quicker than VCRs on Black Friday in 1992.

As the Mets continue to make their playoff push, here are a few other Amazin's you need to have on your team for your fantasy playoff run:

Lucas Duda (1b/OF):  Owners of Duda were getting a little frustrated with his lack of production earlier in the season.  But to say he's come around is an understatement.  The dude is flat out RAKING.  Here's the stat of the day that is absolutely crazy: 1st player in Mets' history to hit 9 home runs in 8 games.  NINE HOME RUNS in EIGHT GAMES.  Sorry, I got a little bit excited just because I love crazy feats of greatness on the diamond.  The man had 30 home runs last year, and these days being able to hit 30 home runs isn't anything to slight.  He deserves to be owned in 100% of leagues, but right now he's only owned in 74%.  Get on it!

Curtis Granderson (OF): Granderson certainly isn't the man he once was when he blasted 40+ home-runs in back to back seasons in the Bronx.  These days, he's batting lead off and enjoying a nice surge in power.  He's got 17 home-runs so far this year, and looks like the Grandy of old.  His OBP is up 20 points from last season so he's getting on base, scoring runs, and has 9 stolen bases to boot as well.  Not bad. He's not going to get you the RBIs most power hitters will provide because of his spot in the lineup, but he is contributing to other much needed categories.  Owned in only 57% of leagues, I'd scoop him up as well.

Travis d'Arnaud (C): He started off the season so well, and I picked him up early on as my starting catcher, Evan Gattis, was having his major struggles.  Unfortunately, his bones have been glass this year and has been on the DL already twice this season.  However, he's now back and will certainly join in on the high octane offense fun.  The former supplemental first rounder, was hitting over .300 before he went to the DL and had 4 home runs at the beginning of the season.  Had he remained healthy, I would have predicted around 18-22 home runs, and for a position that doesn't have a lot of depth, that would have been good enough for me.  As the wear and tear begins to take a toll on other catchers around the league, d'Arnaud should be healthy for the long haul and is worth a spot on your roster.  Owned in 33% of leagues, d'Arnaud will provide much needed offense to the catcher position.

The Mets should be able to keep up the hot streak so as this continues, look for their players to do the same.  I leave with you a ballad of the old time Miracles.