Friday, February 12, 2016

2016 Top 10: Starting Pitchers

It's my favorite time of the year.  The time when you start looking at the players this year and envisioning them on your roster; or of course cursing them for under performing on your team last year.  Either way, I'm going to break down my favorite 10 at each position, then give you a good list of sleepers I think have a chance to bring some value to your teams this year.  I don't want to toot my own horn but each year I end up choosing probably the best sleeper, just an example:

2015: Carlos Correa- Snatched him up in the first month of the season, he's going to be such a stud!
2014: Jose Abreu- Drafted in the 19th round, ugh I just love that pick.
2013: Domonic Brown- Had the season of his life that year, but I haven't come close to choosing him since.
2012: Mike Trout- Need I say more?

Call it what you want, but I like to think I have a knack for these things.  Anyways, on to your top 10 Starting Pitchers of 2016!

1. Clayton Kershaw- Sure his ERA went up from a 1.77 to a 2.13, for any other pitcher a 2.13 is fantastic.  However, talking heads started saying, "oh maybe Kershaw is about to decline."  Give me a break.  In his final 11 starts of the 2015 regular season, Kershaw surrendered no more than 3 ERs in any game.  Whereas his counterparts like Max Scherzer had a few abysmal outings.  His strikeouts also sky rocketed between seasons from 239 to 301.  I guess the nay sayers added a little extra fuel to the fire.

2016 projections: 2.24 ERA, .89 WHIP, 285 Ks




2. Madison Bumgarner-  Everyone was kind of down on him in the 2015 because they compared him to his insane 2014 playoff run.  What he did there should not be comparable to any other sample size because like I said, it was insane!  It's hard to believe Bumgarner is only 26 years old this season as it seems like he's been around forever.  His strikeouts have steadily increased year after year, and I expect them rise again.  His 2015 WHIP was the lowest its been in his career as he's significantly been honing in his control and minimizing walks.

2016 projections: 2.92 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 240 Ks

3. David Price- Arguably Price was the best pitcher in the game in the second half of last season.  After he was traded to the Blue Jays, he just went to a whole other level, really fun to watch, but painful when you were playing against him.  I think Price is going to continue the magic we saw in Toronto as he joins the Red Sox rotation.  During his tenure in Toronto, he averaged about 8 Ks per game and had a 2.30 ERA.  I think Ks will hover around what we saw in 2015 but look for him to be a consistent dominant force each start.

2016 projections: 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 220 Ks

4. Max Scherzer- Midway through the 2015 season, this guy had everyone's vote for Cy Young.  He carried a 1.75 ERA right around the 4th of July and was embarrassing teams left and right (namely, my Pirates). However, after the All Star break, that ERA shot up to a 3.61, almost two full points! He lost some control and his strike outs were down as well.  However, his final two starts of the year were astounding, most notably his final one against the Mets:  9 innings pitched, 17(!!) strikeouts, oh and not to mention it was a no-hitter.  I look for Scherzer to have another solid campaign with a Nationals team that should make some noise this season.

2016 projections: 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 250 Ks

5. Zack Greinke- Yes he is getting "older" and yes he is now on a less talented team, but it's really hard to overlook the magic Greinke displayed for the 2015 campaign.  He surrendered only 41 ERs all season.  That number is just nuts to me.  Pair that with a 1.66 ERA and 19 wins to go along with that, he was outstanding.  I don't think we see a 1.66 ERA again this season, but I do expect it to hover right around 2.10 if all goes well for Greinke again.  Mixed with solid control and a decent amount of strikeouts, he is locked in to be an all around stud for 2016.

2016 projections: 2.10 ERA, .95 WHIP, 195 Ks

6. Jake Arrieta- This guy was the bane of my existence last season.  He haunted Pirate's fans on Twitter, on TV, in my dreams...absolutely everywhere.  We thought he would just lose it for one game and we'd be able to do something against him....this was never the case.  I don't know where he came from or how he was able to do what he did, but the guy clearly figured something out.  1.77 ERA and 236 strikeouts, the guy just exhumed confidence in his goofy wannabe Dan Bilzerian way.  The Cubs are going to be a force this season, so I think he's going to have close to 20 wins this season (he had 22 last year).  I expect a slight dip in strikeouts and ERA but still going to be dominant.

2016 projections: 2.30 ERA, .90 WHIP, 205 Ks

7. Jacob deGrom- A bit underwhelming when he needed to be overwhelming, and overwhelming when it didn't really matter (the All-Star Game).  I have high hope for deGrom this season, he's got great command and high velocity on his fastball.  In a frightening Mets' rotation, it's going to be Harvey or deGrom as the ace of the staff, probably Harvey since he's the face of the franchise.  I think deGrom has the better stuff and frankly would prefer to face Harvey over him.  His IP were down last season due to injury, but he should be healthy and ready to go for 2016.

2016 projections: 2.59 ERA, .97 WHIP, 225 Ks

8. Dallas Keuchel- Keuchel really came out of nowhere for the 2015 season.  He went from very subpar 2012-2013 campaigns, to a pretty good 2014 season, and then, well we know what happened in 2015.  He racked up 20 wins for an Astros team that also came out of nowhere and lowered his ERA by .50 points.  The beginning of 2015 was stellar as he had a .73 ERA in 5 games, though his strikeouts weren't anything special...he still got the job done.  Named the starter of the All-Star game, Keuchel finally got his name on the map.  I look for another solid 2016 season that should be fairly similar to 2015.

2016 projections: 2.54 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 208 Ks

9.  Felix Hernandez- Last season really was not one of the best for Hernandez. His strikeouts were down considerably and his walks were up.  Everyone goes through a slump at some point in their career and Felix is just too good to have this happen to him again.  I expect a rebound 2016 campaign in a quietly solid Mariners' rotation.

2016- projections: 3.00 ERa, 1.15 WHIP, 220 Ks

10. Jose Hernandez- This is a guy I really want to root for.  He looks like he's having so much fun playing baseball, by laughing and joking all the time when he's out there.  Unfortunately, injuries have plagued his promising career.  2016 should be a bounce back year for him and I see him contending for the award by the end of the season.

2016 projections: 2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 201 Ks

There ya have it, my top 10 SP for the season.  Stay tuned for my other weekly updates, and I'm looking forward to any points you might have based on this list!

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